The Paw Print

By Steven Jiang

Heading into December, we are officially less than a year from the 2024 congressional and presidential elections. Currently, the Democratic Party controls both the Presidency and the Senate (51*-49), while the Republicans hold a 221-213 majority in the House of Representatives. Given these slim margins, everything is at stake for both parties. Here is a recap of the action that unfolded this past fall. 

Trump vs. Biden: The Unwanted Rematch

Trump and President Biden are currently head-to-head in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight, and both are expected to become the 2024 presidential nominees of their respective parties. This sets the stage for a 2020 rematch, in which President Biden would have to defend his administration’s record while Trump navigates through business fraud cases and criminal indictments. Clearly, both politicians are deeply unpopular with the American people, with 31% of voters preferring neither candidate (CNN), as of June 2023. Americans are also concerned about the ages of the two men, with 77% believing that Biden is too old for a second term and around 50% for Trump, according to AP.

House Divided: McCarthy Out

The House of Representatives was thrown into chaos in October when a group of far-right Republicans led by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) passed a motion to vacate one of their own, Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). McCarthy was unprecedentedly ousted for attempting to compromise with Democrats over the federal budget. For three weeks, House Republicans dissolved into chaos as they struggled to unite around a new Speaker of the House. The eventual nominee, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA), leans further to the right than his predecessor on abortion and LGBTQ rights, and was instrumental in the effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election. In the end, the Trump-influenced GOP hardliners got what they wanted, but at what cost? Failing to elect a Speaker and govern the country reflects poorly on party unity and competency. 

The GOP Debate Stage

Of the eight major Republican candidates who challenged Trump for the party nomination, only four remain on the debate stage: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Both former Vice President Mike Pence and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott dropped out of the race. It’s a long shot for any of the candidates, with DeSantis leading at only 12.6%, according to FiveThirtyEight as of November 30. With the Iowa Republican caucus and subsequent primaries beginning in January of next year, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Donald Trump is not the frontrunner. It’s safe to assume that if anything, the remaining candidates can only fight to become his running mate. 

Joe Manchin’s Senate Seat

Prior to the midterm elections of 2022, the Democrats had full control over both the legislative and executive branches of the federal government and were poised to enact many provisions of President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda. However, Joe Manchin (D-WV) established himself as a holdout within his own party, specifically against climate measures that would hurt West Virginia’s coal industry. Because the Senate was split 50-50, with Vice President Harris serving as the tie-breaker, the Democrats needed every senator on board. Manchin became the most powerful senator in Washington and frustrated the Democratic Party by single-handedly blocking legislation. Last month, Manchin announced his retirement from office in 2024, creating a strong opportunity for the conservative state of West Virginia to flip the seat red next year. 

*48 Democrats and 3 Independents that caucus with Democrats